How to play Nassau
Three bets in one: front nine, back nine, and overall. The classic.
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Data
Give one player a small edge per hole and they win a nine about 57% of the time and the full 18 about 65%. The longer the bet, the bigger the tilt.
The CutNovember 4, 2026 · 3 min read
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A Nassau looks like three equal bets: the front nine, the back nine and the full 18, often for the same stake, which is why groups call it a 2-2-2 or a 5-5-5. The three bets do not tilt by the same amount. The longer a match runs, the more it favors whoever is playing better, and the 18-hole bet is the longest one on the card.
Take a match where one player has a small edge: they win 40% of holes, lose 30% and halve 30%, and every hole is independent. The probabilities below come from that model, which is simpler than real golf.
Run that edge over matches of different lengths:
64.5%
how often the better player in this model wins the 18-hole bet, against 56.7% for a nine.
Each extra hole gives the per-hole edge another chance to count. The halves shrink as well, from 30% on a single hole to under 10% over a full round, because a long match rarely finishes level.
Count each bet as one unit won or lost. In this model the better player expects to collect about 0.28 units on each nine and about 0.39 units on the 18-hole bet. With equal stakes on all three, roughly 41% of the better player's expected winnings come from the overall alone.
In the model, if handicap strokes made every hole even, every bet would be even again whatever its length: in an even match, winning and losing are equally likely over one hole or eighteen. If the strokes leave an edge, the overall is where it pays out most reliably.
Weighting the overall more heavily, a 5-5-10 instead of a 5-5-5, moves even more of the money onto the bet the better player is most likely to win.
Of the three bets, the nines give the weaker player the best odds. The overall is where the better player's edge shows up most.
The same per-hole edge, played over longer and longer matches:
The three bets do different jobs: the nines keep the weaker player in the game, and the overall rewards whoever played better over the whole round.
A paid Nassau on caddie.fun settles hole by hole rather than as three separate bets, so the money follows holes won and lost and the overall carries no extra weight. The front nine, back nine and overall are still scored as matches, hole by hole, on net scores when you play net.